*  You can probably tell by this part of the book I tend to be cynical about good stories. I wanted one feel-good story in here, so I am leaving my cynicism to a footnote. I suspect PECOTA just found out that Ortiz was a steroid user who stopped using steroids and would start using them again. From the standpoint of prediction, it is actually pretty cool if PECOTA was able to detect that—but it makes it a less moving story.